The most remarkable lines in Barak Obama's inauguration speech were those addressed to Islamic nations: 'We seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect' and, he went on, 'we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.'
The words were conciliatory, the imagery powerful and the approach a complete contrast to his predecessor.
Last year during the election campaign my colleague Polly Howard De La Mare and I carried out a psychological analysis of the then presidential candidate and those few lines demonstrated many of his strengths: clear vision, the ability to see the others' perspective and values driven. These are qualities that he shares with his role model, Abraham Lincoln, arguably the greatest American president. Some may think that by asking us to compare him with the Civil War leader is hugely arrogant. However it also shows a real sense of how he wants his presidency to be conducted and possibly how he wants to be remembered. It gives him a standard to measure himself against and, being self critical, clarity about where he needs to improve.
Our analysis also showed that under pressure he can be judgmental, slow to make decisions and has a tendency to withdraw. There have been times, particularly in the first few months, where these traits have been revealed and he could learn much from Lincoln in this regard who showed a remarkably openness of sprit when confronted with criticism.
Lincoln famously worked to create a cabinet which contained many principle rivals. An analysis we carried out of Obama's Cabinet and his closest advisors shows that whilst they may differ in their political views, their personality profiles are very similar. They appear to be calm, rational, even tempered. The most notable exceptions to this are Rahm Emmuanuel, the White House Chief of Staff and Joe Biden, the Vice President. Both men operate at a more emotional level than the others and as a result could provide the degree of tension and constructive conflict that is necessary, although at the time it may appear extremely unhelpful, for any time to become truly high performing. The big question remains over this team and consequently for the President himself, can they deliver what they have promised?
The occasion of Gordon Brown's first meeting with Barack Obama since the latter's inauguration makes you wonder about the nature of the so called "special relationship" between the two countries and how it will fare in the hands of the two leaders.
First of all it should be noted that they do share several ersonality characteristics in common. Both are highly analytical, long-term, strategic thinkers. In addition, they are both values driven and have a good understanding of what they believe in and stand for.
They also share some shortcomings. Their strengths in analysis make it difficult for them to make spontaneous decisions and as a result this can be an area where they can get unstuck. There is also a tendency for both men to become somewhat aloof under pressure.
But there are also considerable differences. Brown, for example, is confident, has a great ability to focus and as a result is able to get things done. His belief in his own abilities though can make him appear arrogant and at times perhaps even rather strident. He is naturally mistrustful and rather suspicious of others but also has a need for control. Empathy is not something that comes easily to him.
Obama on the other hand works to understand others and to persuade them. He is able to see others' perspective and generally has a far more open style. Interestingly there is anxiety here too, in particular a fear of failure and under pressure he can become judgemental and withdrawn. Obama's openness to feedback, argument and ideas to others' styles of working certainly makes him a more complete leader.
How will they work together? Well, they don't seem to be an ideal working combination. On the other hand how closely do they really have to work with each other? The first meeting of the two as leaders will be mannered and studied. Brown will want to be seen as a peer and not as a lapdog. This natural suspiciousness will probably get in the way of establishing strong bonds. The relationship, as far as we can tell, will be one of wariness and personal distance.
The context of the meeting is also important. Brown is beleaguered, behind in the polls and with his government's competence being questioned. Obama on the other hand is charismatic, popular and seen as a welcome breath of fresh air.
Their personality styles then do not auger well for the special relationship. If it is to flourish Obama must make Brown feel like an equal in private as well as in public. He will need to follow through on commitments and see their relationship as mutually beneficial.
The area which provides hope is their values. The way they view the world appears to be very similar. If they can agree on what they jointly want to achieve, which is certainly possible, then their personality differences will not present such a great issue.
Gordon Brown complimented Barak Obama on his recent election to become US President by saying "I know Barak Obama and we share many values. We both have determination to show that government can act and help people fairly through the difficult times facing the economy".
Having studied both men closely it is clear that they have similarities. Both are analytical, strategic thinkers and are values driven. But whilst Obama openly talks and writes about his values Gordon Brown, in contrast, seems almost to deny having them in case they offend.
Interestingly, the British public's perception of the Prime Minister has started to improve with his tackling of the current economic crisis. This is precisely the type of problem that our work shows that he should excel at, requiring, as it does, a detailed grasp of facts, a long term view and careful planning and implementation. In short, it plays to many of his strengths.
Just as importantly, people seem to accept that he will be good in exactly this type of crisis so there are positive expectations of him. Nor does it require him to persuade us of the need to act - we know something needs to be done and we are happy to go along with the solutions he suggests. This feeds his arrogant streak and avoids having to influence, which is not one of his strengths.
The one area which Brown seems reluctant, even now, to talk about is his values. In coming to power Brown should have had the courage to use his values as the basis for his decision making. Instead he tried to become a populist politician, in the Blair mould, which does not suit him at all. In this respect there is much that our seasoned, experienced Premier can learn from the younger, greener President Elect of the United States.
Last year my colleague, Emma Trenier, and I had our heads buried in political biographies of the then Prime Minister Blair and his Chancellor Gordon Brown. We analysed the descriptions of the two of them and then drew up psychological profiles for them.
I was pleasantly surprised to find, one year on, that our analysis predicted Gordon Brown's plight pretty accurately. The conclusion of our detailed profile said:
"Brown's strengths are considerable, in particular, his analytical skills, his thoroughness, his diligence and conscientiousness. These should not be underestimated. There is a sense in which, given Tony Blair’s personality, these are precisely the qualities that number 10 and the Prime Minister has been lacking.
His biggest challenge, however will be to recreate a sense of unity within the cabinet. The best way Brown has of convincing the British public that he is a man to be trusted will not be through spin or trying to smile more often in public, it will be through the government delivering on its promises and achieving a degree of consistency and not engaging in exciting but politically misdirected adventures. He needs to create a cabinet where the others feel involved and valued. This is easy to say and difficult to do, especially for someone with the profile suggested here.
If he is to change he will need to be persuaded that there is something in it for him, he will need others to give him constructive and positive feedback on his behaviour. However, the change itself will be difficult. From a personality profile point of view it may be very difficult to achieve. If he does not, however, he may quickly lose support amongst those from whom he will need it most i.e. the Cabinet. This difficulty in establishing collaborative relationships with a broad range of people could be his undoing. If he can change, however, this could be his route to becoming and being seen as a truly effective premier."
Brown is not only under pressure and beleaguered he also appears to me to be confused. The Prime Minister's style, deficient as it may be in quite a number of ways, has got him to the top of the political pile. He may not have seen the need to change as a result. What is clear though is that what got him to the top may not be enough to keep him there.
(If you would like a copy of the detailed profile please feel free to email me.)
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